🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Trader Earned $Nearly Half a Million on Bets Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor profited close to $500,000 from wagers on the downfall of the Venezuelan leader immediately preceding it was officially announced, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from non-public details of American actions. Market Movement in Wagers Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the end of January rose in the hours before President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that Maduro had been seized. One account, which joined the platform recently and took four positions, all on Venezuela, profited a total of $nearly half a million from a modest bet of over $32,000. The identity is unknown. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Trading information shows that traders assessed the probability of a political change at just 6.5% in the midday period of Friday, January 2nd. Yet these probabilities had jumped to over 10% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the early hours of Saturday, indicating a sudden change in market sentiment immediately prior to the social media post was made. "This specific wager has all the characteristics of a bet based on inside information," said Dennis Kelleher. Several of other platform users also made large payouts from bets on the same outcome. Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies Elected officials are beginning to pay attention. Proposed legislation put forward on recently seeks to ban public officials from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a wager. Industry Context Prediction markets have surged in popularity in the United States, with users able to wager on everything from sports to current affairs. This sector encountered regulatory challenges under the Biden administration. However it has found a more favorable environment during the Trump presidency. Trading on insider information is illegal in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the prediction market arena. An official representative for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."