A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
